Anatomy of a Bogus Story

I wanted to record one more piece of The Great Drone Flap of 2024. It is this claim that the real story behind the ongoing drama is a secret military operation worthy of a cheap paperback novel.

Remarkably, even after the evidence that kicked off this ongoing incident was discredited–even after a joint statement from all the pertinent agencies said there was no merit to the stories — the narrative persists. By Monday, December 16, many folks still believed that the skies of northern New Jersey were full of mystery drones.

Think about it: there was a rush of images of lights in the sky claimed to be mysterious drones, some the size of SUVs and not merely the work of hobbyists or pranksters. Those images were systematically taken apart over two weeks.

And it is beginning to get silly, as people around the country try to get in on the fun. Former Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland claimed the constellation Orion to be a horde of drones, and PA State Senator Doug Mastriano somehow confused a prop tie fighter with a downed drone.

But the idea persists that the shear number of observers just can’t be mistaken, despite the silliness, despite the explainable images, and despite the outright hoaxs. There must be something behind it. Indeed, so much so that people just assumed that mystery drones were crowding the sky and that the government was covering it up. As usual.

Look to the Skies

That part is hard to dispute. Drones are real, of course, but any evidence of mystery drones the size of an SUV didn’t seem to exist. (I’d post that the more recent models of Cadillac Escalades are, in fact, larger than your average Cessna, but that’s a separate chip on my shoulder.)

Eyewitness testimony is difficult to dispute without getting personal. But we know people easily misidentify things they see in the sky.

Meanwhile, news sites, social media, and Reddit are full of second and third-hand claims that Law Enforcement Officers (LEOs) and Coast Guard officers have seen armadas of drones. That includes the House Homeland Security committee meeting where FBI deputy director Wheeler testified that they were investigating the reports but gave no answers as to the cause or whether the reports were true. (Watch on YouTube)

I would put forward that even if the reports have happened, LEOs and Coast Guard officers can be mistaken. The skeptical UFO literature…and the parallels to UFO events (or “flaps”) are many…is full of reports of local officials and military personnel getting caught up in a moment and making a mistake of identification.

That’s Just What They Want You To Believe

Let us just pause for a second to recognize that on Tuesday, December 17, the Department of Homeland Security, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Department of Defense issued a joint statement about the reported mystery drone sightings.

The takeaway:

Having closely examined the technical data and tips from concerned citizens, we assess that the sightings to date include a combination of lawful commercial drones, hobbyist drones, and law enforcement drones, as well as manned fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, and stars mistakenly reported as drones. We have not identified anything anomalous and do not assess the activity to date to present a national security or public safety risk over the civilian airspace in New Jersey or other states in the northeast.

Granted, this confirms my assumptions, but it also jives with the presented evidence. Reality has a way of being more realistic than one generally hopes.

Their statement then says that they know about sightings near restricted government facilities, which has been a persistent issue but it is entirely separate from these sightings that have garnered so much attention. I think I mentioned the incident at Vandenberg recently.

So, case settled, right? Yeah, that’s what they want you to think.

The Coverup, Theory 1: Ukie Nukies

So, if the eyewitness narrative is true, and the Truth is, indeed, Out There, it is only reasonable to ask why the government is now covering it up! I mean, demonstrably, that’s what we expect of our government.

Apparently, John Ferguson, the CEO of a drone company, kicked off with a new twist on the story over a TikTok where he suggested he had personal knowledge that the military was hunting for nuclear material, conceivably from Ukraine. The nuclear material was derived from some “lost nukes” dating from around the time the Budapest Memorandum was signed, and Ukraine forfeited its nuclear arsenal for (totally unkept) promises for security.

Somehow, his story goes, the nukes got here for some dark and nefarious purpose and were lost. The drones, he reasons, are trying to detect them. In his favor is that we do know that the military and defense contractors have tested drones with CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear…logical!?!) sensors.

We also know that police are outfitted with CBRN sensors. In fact, a patrol officer in Houston found some contaminated junk last year when his sensor alerted him as he passed a dump.

Ryan McBeth, a YouTuber with a military background and current expertise in both drones and sussing out fibs, did a very convincing takedown of Ferguson’s claims. McBeth makes some very good points about both Ferguson’s believability and the effectiveness of using drones to find nukes, including invoking the inverse square law, which he suggests would make finding nuclear sources difficult from higher altitudes.

McBeth has come to my attention since he has had a lot to say about propaganda and hybrid (i.e., using misinformation as a weapon) warfare, which I think has a lot of lessons for skeptics learning how to navigate claims on social media. His YouTube channel is here. I’m a fan.

The Coverup, Theory 2: More Missing Nukes!

This second one really annoys me. In the search for some culprit, someone somewhere is mining through available news to find something, anything that might provide a reason for the mass drone search.

Again, this is the mass drone search we’ve yet to prove is actually happening.

The idea is that the search is for a lost–or stolen–radiological shipment, which hints at dark and dangerous purposes. The source of this news…like, the entirety of the thing…is this report from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (first item), which just happens to coincide with the start of the flap…

…and takes place in NEW JERSEY (Organ sting! Flash of lightning! Thundercrash!).

I’m not sure who first reported it, but I saw this mentioned on forums before being reported in Epoch Times, Breitbart, and The Gateway Pundit. The Gateway Pundit article includes quotes from a concerned mayor of a town in northern New Jersey who appeared on a New York morning show expressing anger and frustration that THEY’RE KEEPING THE TRUTH FROM US. More on him later, and I might mean moron.

To be clear, this was not “released by the NRC” in the conventional sense. No spokesperson made this known. It was merely part of their normal incident reporting tool that some intrepid conspiracymonger reporter uncovered Googled. The link is above, but here is the relevant text:

AGREEMENT STATE REPORT – SOURCE LOST IN TRANSIT

The following information was provided by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) via email:

“The licensee reported to NJDEP on December 3, 2024, that a Ge-68 pin source that they sent for disposal has been lost in transit on December 2, 2024. The source is a Eckert & Ziegler model HEGL-0132, with current approximate activity of 0.267 mCi. The shipping container arrived at its destination damaged and empty. The licensee has filed a claim with the shipper. If the source is not located within the 30 days, the licensee will follow-up with a full written report to include root cause(s) and corrective actions.

“This event is reportable under 10 CFR 20.2201(a)(1)(ii).”

New Jersey Event Report ID number: To be determined

THIS MATERIAL EVENT CONTAINS A ‘Less than Cat 3’ LEVEL OF RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL

Sources that are “Less than IAEA Category 3 sources,” are either sources that are very unlikely to cause permanent injury to individuals or contain a very small amount of radioactive material that would not cause any permanent injury. Some of these sources, such as moisture density gauges or thickness gauges that are Category 4, the amount of unshielded radioactive material, if not safely managed or securely protected, could possibly – although it is unlikely – temporarily injure someone who handled it or were otherwise in contact with it, or who were close to it for a period of many weeks. For additional information go to http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1227_web.pdf

That’s it.

Some relevant points:

• This was for medical use. It is 0.267 microcuries of Germanium-68 used apparently to calibrate PET scanners. It was on its way to a community cancer hospital in Newfield, NJ, just outside of Vineland. Product details.
  • It isn’t the sort of thing you should lick, but it isn’t the stuff of dirty bombs, either.
    • There are 2500 active PET scanners in this country. In fact, there are tens of thousands of laboratories, hospitals, universities, and research centers that are shipped small packages of radioactive materials.
    • Sometimes, those things get lost or damaged in transit. When that happens, you report it. Apparently, the NRC reports are a clearinghouse of information, and all the other reports are similar. We are not talking about missing bombs or errant reactor control rods here.
• According to the report, it is deemed “very unlikely to cause permanent injury to individuals or contain [sic] a very small amount of radioactive material that would not cause any permanent injury.”
• It happened about 100 miles from Monmouth County, in North Jersey, where the drones are reportedly searching. The aforementioned angry mayor, Michael Melham from Belleville, NJ, is even further away from the reported destination of these materials.
  • The manufacturer is located in Valencia, California, according to their catalog, so it may have come from an airport up north or, just as likely, Baltimore or Philly.
• Again, the NCR report labels it a “Non Emergency,” which is certainly not the sort of thing you expend your stealth drone fleet to find.
  • Oh, wait? Aren’t these supposed drones all reportedly well-lit, with FAA running lights for nighttime use? That’s weird. Why would you light up your drones for a secret search mission?

As for Mayor Melham, shame on you for promoting nonsense based on zero evidence other than a cherry-picked report you read online. You’re using fear to promote yourself. Very noble.

This story does not hold up to even a cursory examination. You’re only reading about it because someone was looking for something on which to pin the lost radioactive materials narrative.  

To be clear, this was not some sort of nuclear contamination event. Moreover, the drone search for missing nuclear material did not happen. This is the work of people who profit from keeping the drone flap moving, and they do so easily by preying on your fears of radiation and the predominant narrative that the government must be up to no good.

Always bet on the longevity of a good conspiracy theory. Nothing will ever really prove it wrong. Same with this UFO/UAP/Drone flap. You can rationalize all the misidentified images you can see, but you can never kill an idea built on fear of the unknown.